— Written by Lyle Jarvis

A Life-Changing Lottery Ticket 🎟️

Over the past few months, Australia unveiled a first-of-its-kind "climate visa." Under the Falepili Union, this visa allows Tuvaluan citizens to enter a lottery for a chance to win one of 280 slots. The small pacific state, with a population hovering around 11,000, has become a test case for how countries might respond to climate‑driven migration.

The visa, which offers permanent residency (and frankly, is a pretty groundbreaking migration pathway), was created as an acknowledgment of the rising sea levels, and potentially disastrous climate challenges threatening Tuvalu and its citizens.

In fact, a team of scientists at NASA predicted that the majority of Tuvalu land and critical infrastructure will sit below the level of the current high tide by 2050.

Breaking Down the Visa 🛂

Through the program, Australia is accepting up to 280 Tuvaluans per year for permanent residency. Winners can live, study, work, and access health or education services in Australia, without needing a job offer, marriage license or any other traditional requirements. It’s open to all Tuvalu citizens above 18 years old, assuming they haven’t gotten their Tuvaluan citizenship through an investment to Tuvalu, and aren't citizens of New Zealand.

Also, on the note of New Zealand, while it’s not specifically a "climate visa," they also offer Tuvaluans and citizens from Pacific Island nations a pathway to residency through a ballot system (read more about that here, and some of its drawbacks).

Applications opened June 16 and closed July 18, 2025, with ballot draws running July 25 through January 2026. In just the opening days, over 1,124 primary applicants, including family members, totaling 4,000+ people entered the lottery, making up a whopping one‑third of their population.

Tuvalu isn’t Alone 🗺️

While Tuvalu leads this unfortunate trend, other communities across the globe are facing serious and similar threats. Alaska’s Newtok is moving due to permafrost thaw, and Panama’s Guna people face coastal flooding. Even coastal areas in the U.S are increasingly at climate‑related risk. 

Scientists have projected that by 2070, over 3 billion people could live outside habitable zones (pending any serious climate progress).

Australia’s climate visa is a landmark experiment. But for most countries, climate displacement remains largely unaddressed. The U.S. enforces stringent visa policies even for economic or humanitarian cases, let alone climate ones.

At the same time, cities in the U.S. are starting to tout themselves as “climate havens,” to invite domestic residents from across the country. Disappointingly, we haven’t seen any of them stand up to the political headwinds and speak up for this sentiment on a global level. Experts are starting to make the case that the U.S. (and any other world leaders with ‘climate haven’ spaces, for that matter) has a humanitarian responsibility to welcome people fleeing climate disasters, especially considering they’re the ones causing a lot of this mess.

As sea levels rise and more communities lose habitable land, policymakers must begin creating legal pathways for climate migration before the crisis forces chaotic, unsafe mass movements. Tuvalu’s ballot may be small, but it sets a precedent the global community may need to follow, and fast.

The bottom line? The U.S., along with other big global players and international frameworks alike, are seriously lacking protections for climate-displaced people. Big legal powerhouses, like the American Bar Association are beginning to explore the legal framework for redefining what it means to be a climate refugee, and taking steps toward a more fair system as climate migrations rise.

For further reading, check out this article from the Yale Center for Environmental Justice.

Special Rec: Jake Bittle’s Book📚

“The Great Displacement: Climate Change and the Next American Migration,” by Jake Bittle.
You might recognize Jake for his writing at Grist. His book is a phenomenal exploration of climate migration in the United States, and masterfully puts faces and communities to these questions, issues and realities. It’s been reviewed by Yale Climate Connections, covered by NPR and more – sparking much-needed dialogue about the impending disasters of these displacements, and their broader impact on society. And again, they’re not a future problem – they’ve already begun.

Bonus: listen to an interview with Jake here.

Some Good News Stories You Might‘ve Missed This Week 🗞️📺:

1. The IEA projected renewables will be the world’s top power source ‘by 2026’ (CarbonBrief)

2. Speaking of New Zealand, they want to double their use of geothermal energy by 2040 (Bloomberg)

3. How flood-ravaged Boston took on the climate deniers – and won. (The Guardian)