COP-Out: Africa Shines, America Splits, Brazil Playing Both Sides

— Written by Lyle Jarvis

America the No-Show ❌ 

The 30th UN Climate Conference (COP30) in Belém, Brazil, is just around the corner, and things are already tense on the global stage. Perhaps most notably this week, the Trump Administration announced that no senior U.S. officials will attend the summit. Unfortunate as it may be, it's a somewhat unsurprising continuation of Trump's ongoing dismissal of climate change, reaffirming his deepening love affair with boosting fossil fuels. 

Bonus read (spin zone): How the US could shape the COP30 climate summit without even being there (CNN)

Nevertheless, while the world's second biggest polluter being a no-show is cause for a serious geopolitical ripple, a few other narratives are being thrust into the spotlight.

The Belem of the Ball, Brazil 🇧🇷 

The U.S.'s absence leaves big shoes to fill, putting unusually intense pressure on host country Brazil to pick up a larger share of the slack. Over the past few years, Brazil has tried to position itself as an emerging climate champion, specifically around the Global South. 

They’ve also made serious progress on things like deforestation, reporting an 11% drop compared to last year. In fact, since Lula de Silva returned to office in 2023, deforestation rates have more than halved. For more about Brazil’s deforestation project, check out this article.

The problem is, this progressive stance has been undercut by its own moves, like approving the state-run oil company to drill in highly ecologically sensitive regions, or letting Shell run wild toward new production highs. Also in the past few weeks, they’ve announced they’re going full speed ahead to capitalize on a massive offshore oil discovery, with BP running the show.

These big oil moves create a huge credibility fault line between their climate talk and their energy choices, setting the stage for intense scrutiny as the conference gets closer. It also begs the question: how long can they keep this up before being forced to choose a side?

Bonus read: Save the Amazon or Drill for Oil? Brazil Says It Can Do Both. (NY Times)

Negotiation Spotlights: Africa, The Global South, Climate Finance 🌍️ 

• The Global South is also stepping into the spotlight to help fill the shoes left empty by the U.S.. Africa, in particular, is leading the way, rebranding as a "continent of solutions".
  

• The toughest issue is still climate finance. Going into the negotiations, heads are turning at the "Baku-to-Belém Roadmap," designed to mobilize $1.3 trillion in private capital annually. 

• Though they account for only about 3% of global emissions, Africa’s disproportionate exposure to climate impacts means they need a serious and immediate increase in climate investment. To help make it happen, they’re strategically leveraging their vast mineral deposits to speed up the global transition. 

Success at the negotiation table hinges on critical (but pretty technical) things like interoperable financial taxonomies (classification systems for financial activities—crucial for tracking climate finance flows). It also hinges on ensuring nations have investable climate plans to attract commercial capital.

Some Stories You Might Have Missed This Week 🗞️📺:

1. Mazama, an Oregon-based energy company, drilled the world's hottest enhanced geothermal well, capable of producing up to 5 gigawatts of geothermal energy. (TechCrunch)

2. The EV battery tech that’s worth the hype, according to experts (Wired)

3. A new national law in South Korea will help turn large parking lots into solar power farms (Electrek)