— Written by Lyle Jarvis

Supply Change: A Mixed Climate Bag 🚢 

At first glance, Trump’s tariffs might seem disconnected from climate policy. But in reality, they create a massive ripple of impact on emissions, energy infrastructure, and manufacturing – all key pieces of our climate targets.

Tariffs often prompt companies to rethink their supply chains, which can mean taking offshore productions onshore, vice versa, or redesigning how their products get are made.

While we can't say definitively how much or how little production would be moved stateside, less offshore production means fewer emissions from transoceanic shipping, which accounts for an estimated 3% of global greenhouse gases. (Quick side note on shipping: Earlier this year, leaders from around the globe made a promising pledge to decarbonize the shipping industry, which is great news!)

Wherever production ends up, there are still a few variables that make it difficult for experts to assess any climate cons or pros, since it depends largely on the energy sources used for actually producing stuff. For example, manufacturing steel or aluminum in the U.S. can be more carbon-intensive than in countries like Canada, where they use more hydropower.   In fact, just this week, Trump announced he was doubling tariffs on steel and aluminum, trying to incentivize production here in the U.S., both of which are hugely carbon intensive.

Carbon Brief asked a range of researchers and policy experts what they think the tariffs could mean for climate action and energy supply. Check out some of the expert opinions here!

Clean Energy Manufacturing 🔋 

While tariffs are intended to protect and promote domestic manufacturing, they present immediate challenges for the wind and solar sectors by increasing costs and creating policy uncertainties.

As goods get more expensive to produce overseas, the allure of domestic production grows increasingly attractive to companies. Taking this in tandem with the Trump Administration’s ambitions for U.S. fossil fuels, climate experts fear the rise of “energy independence” (conservative code for drill baby, drill) is upon us. In fact, in a recent fossil-friendly move, Trump redirected more than 300M in clean energy funds to U.S. oil plants.

Cleaner methods of production are facing strong headwinds, like a new monstrous tariff on solar goods from certain countries (as high as 3,521%!)

This comes on the heels of tremendous momentum in the solar industry. Climate policy has helped the domestic production of solar panels grow sixfold since 2023. Solar manufacturing jumped from less than $1 billion in annual investments in 2022 to nearly $6 billion by last year.

A Hidden Benefit 🔍️ 

On the brighter side, tariffs could slow the influx of cheap, disposable goods, like fast fashion. Millions of previously duty-free low-value packages from China are now subject to hefty tariffs (recently brought down from 145% to 30%). Even a 30% tariff likely creates price spikes for consumers and higher costs for manufacturers -- a perfect recipe for climate activists rooting against fast fashion.

Ideally, this price increase will incentivize folks toward secondhand shopping (cutting textile waste, and ditching fast fashion giants like Shein and Temu.

Ultimately, the climate impact of tariffs depends on how broader policy shakes out in the coming months of Trump’s second term. Without parallel investments in clean, domestic infrastructure, the tariffs could bring a fossil-fueled catastrophe. By calling on our state and local leaders to fight for climate-smart industrial policy, we can stave off fossil fuel interests, and hold our ground toward a cleaner, more sustainable energy economy!

Community Announcement 🫂🌱🎥

 📣 Climate film folks! This month kicks off an exclusive theatrical run of We Are Guardians, heading to theaters in more than 50 cities across the U.S.! 

Here in LA, on Pique’s home turf, the premiere starts tomorrow (Friday, June 6th) at the iconic Laemmle Santa Monica Film Center. And New Yorkers, check it out at the Angelika July 11-17. There will be special Q&As at both. 🗽 

Directed by Edivan Guajajara, Chelsea Greene, and Rob Grobman, and executive produced by Leonardo DiCaprio, this award-winning documentary follows the courageous work of Indigenous forest guardians in Brazil— risking everything to shield the Amazon Rainforest from destruction.

🗓️ June 6

⏰ Doors at 7:00 PM | Film at 7:30 PM 

📍 Laemmle Santa Monica Film Center

👀 Some Stories You Might Have Missed This Week 🗞️📺:

1. Thanks to a landmark court ruling in Germany, big polluters face accountability for climate damage (Center for International Environmental Law)

2. About 75% of municipal vehicles in New York City’s governing fleet are either hybrid, electric, or running on renewable biofuel, per city officials (Gothamist)

3. A nonprofit received $19.2 million to seal more than 110 abandoned oil and gas wells and protect wildlife refuges (Happy Eco News)